When will the bottom of this bear market arrive? How low will it go?

If you try to predict precisely, the bottom of a bear market usually occurs about a year after the highest point of the bull market. The peak was $126,199 in October 2025, so the bear market bottom might not be reached until October 2026!

Currently, Bitcoin has fallen 40.8% from its high, and ETH has dropped 56.4%.

According to past patterns, after Bitcoin enters a bear market, the maximum decline is typically 70-80%. The three previous halvings saw maximum drops of 86%, 83%, and 77% (see the chart below).

This time, with institutional entry, the decline has narrowed, possibly to 60-70%, which is around $50,000 to $37,000!

Understand the overall market trend to make your own trading decisions—that's called the big-picture trading approach—just passing by as an old Dota player.

At least for the next six months, the main strategy should be to go long at high points, then look for key support levels to rebound. But whether you're holding long positions or bottom-fishing with spot buys, don’t get too greedy—take profits when the time is right.