Novo Nordisk's earnings outlook triggers stock sell-off; the company expects sales and profits to decline sharply

On Tuesday (February 3), Novo Nordisk’s stock listed in the U.S. saw a significant decline. As of the time of writing, the stock price dropped over 14% to $50.64.

Novo Nordisk is scheduled to release its full-year 2025 sales figures and outlook reports for 2025 and 2026 after the close of trading on the Danish stock exchange (its primary listing). As a result, Novo Nordisk’s ADRs were temporarily halted from trading in the U.S.

The overall report indicates that due to declining prices in the U.S. market and the upcoming loss of exclusivity for blockbuster drugs Wegovy (NovoYing) and Ozempic (NovoTai) in multiple markets, Novo Nordisk’s sales and profit growth this year are expected to slow down or even decline.

Specific data shows that, at fixed exchange rates, Novo Nordisk’s net sales are projected to grow by 10% in 2025, with operating profit (EBIT) increasing by 6%. For 2026, the company expects sales and EBIT to decrease by 5% to 13%.

The statement said: “This outlook reflects expectations of a decline in sales from international and U.S. markets. In 2026, the global GLP-1 market is expected to continue expanding, enabling Novo Nordisk to reach more patients and increase sales.”

“However, at the same time, actual drug prices will decline, and factors such as the impact of the ‘best price’ agreement in the U.S. and the loss of exclusivity in some international markets will offset overall market growth.”

According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the “best price” agreement requires that brand-name drug prices in the U.S. not exceed the lowest prices in OECD member countries where the per capita GDP reaches 60% of that in the U.S. This means that some drug prices in the U.S. will be aligned with those in Canada, Europe, Japan, and other developed countries.

At the time of the report’s release, this Danish pharmaceutical company is facing fierce competition, trying to regain its footing in the weight-loss drug market.

Currently, the company is betting on the oral version of Wegovy and the next-generation weight-loss injectable drug CagriSema to reclaim market share in the U.S. and boost its persistently sluggish stock price.

Affected by multiple downward revisions of earnings guidance, management turmoil, and increased competition, Novo Nordisk’s U.S. stock price fell a total of 35.51% last year. However, as the first company to launch an oral GLP-1 weight-loss drug in the U.S., its stock price has recently rebounded.

Although the oral Wegovy performed well in its U.S. debut, the market remains closely watching its main competitor, Eli Lilly. Lilly is expected to launch its own weight-loss pills in the first half of 2026.

Morningstar analyst Karen Andersen said: “Investors want to see Novo Nordisk fully leverage this leading advantage, especially in direct-to-patient channels (mainly self-pay or cash payments), to narrow the gap with Lilly that widened in 2025.”

Barclays analyst James Gordon stated before the report was released that Novo Nordisk’s earnings guidance might trigger further downward expectations from the market, but it could also mark a “buy the dip” opportunity, as investor concerns about the outlook may be overly pessimistic.

He added: “The negative impact of downward earnings guidance may be partially offset by investors’ willingness to buy on dips, especially betting on the launch performance of oral Wegovy in the U.S. and a potential inflection point in the sales of injectable Wegovy this year.”

(Source: Cailian Press)