The SSR Formula: Why Mining Investors Are Taking Another Look At SSR Mining

Gold mining stocks don’t always attract analyst attention, but SSR Mining just got a meaningful vote of confidence. A TD Cowen analyst upgraded the stock to buy with a $43 Canadian dollar price target, triggering a 10% jump in the share price. What makes this upgrade noteworthy isn’t just the rating change—it’s the investment logic behind it. Understanding this logic, what we might call the “SSR formula,” reveals why gold miners and value investors are circling back to this particular play in early 2026.

Analyst Upgrade Signals Confidence In Gold Mining Play

TD Cowen analyst Steven Green laid out a straightforward bull case today: SSR Mining stock looks “compelling” in the current gold price environment. With bullion prices climbing, the analyst sees SSR as trading at an attractive discount compared to rival gold mining companies. The timing of the upgrade carries extra weight because it comes as the industry watches for a potential operational catalyst.

That catalyst is the possible reopening of SSR’s Çöpler mining operation in Turkey. The mine halted production following an industrial incident in 2024, but there’s growing speculation about when—and if—operations might resume. If Çöpler comes back online, the earnings picture could shift dramatically. That’s where the SSR formula becomes central to understanding the investment thesis.

Breaking Down The Investment Thesis

Gold mining stocks require a different valuation framework than most industrial companies. Rather than relying solely on traditional metrics like P/E ratios, serious gold mining investors often use a simpler benchmark: price relative to operating cash flow. This is the essence of what could be called the SSR formula—it strips away accounting noise and focuses on actual cash generation, which is what matters most when commodity prices fluctuate.

Currently, SSR Mining generates roughly $395 million in annual operating cash flow. The stock’s $4.7 billion market cap translates to about 12 times that cash flow—not a screaming bargain, but reasonable given the company’s growth trajectory. The stock has nearly tripled in value over the past year, so valuation compression was inevitable.

Cash Flow Growth Changes The Valuation Picture

Here’s where the numbers get interesting. S&P Global Market Intelligence forecasts paint an optimistic but achievable growth scenario. By 2026, analysts project operating cash flow could climb to $946 million—more than doubling current levels. If Çöpler reopens as planned, 2027 could see operating cash flow surpass $1.1 billion.

At those cash flow levels, SSR Mining would trade at just 4.3 to 4.2 times operating cash flow—well below the typical 10x threshold that disciplined gold mining investors often use as their buy signal. Even on traditional earnings or free cash flow metrics, SSR currently trades around 25x both figures. With the company forecast to grow at over 100% across the next five years, that valuation doesn’t look excessive relative to the expansion trajectory.

Does SSR Mining Meet The SSR Formula Test?

The SSR formula—valuing gold miners on operating cash flow generation—suggests there’s still meaningful room for upside. If the company hits its 2026-2027 forecasts and commodity prices remain supported, the stock could easily double from current levels over the coming 12 months. Even accounting for mining sector volatility and execution risk at Çöpler, the risk-reward setup appears tilted toward investors who bought in at lower levels or are considering entry now.

For investors who believe in gold’s continued relevance as a portfolio hedge and appreciate the simplicity of the SSR formula as a due diligence tool, this analyst upgrade may be signaling a window of opportunity—before the market fully prices in the growth potential.