First Capital Futures: Market returns to weak reality, ethylene glycol futures continue to adjust

International oil prices continue to decline, with weakening cost support. In terms of supply and demand, some domestic units have recently restarted, and ethylene glycol capacity has slightly increased. Last week, port inventories of ethylene glycol rose by nearly 40,000 tons compared to the previous week. Downstream polyester factories are reducing production and lowering capacity, and it is estimated that the cumulative inventory increase of ethylene glycol in February could reach around 500,000 tons. In the later stage, Gulei Petrochemical plans to shut down 700,000 tons, Guanghui plans to shut down 400,000 tons, and Satellite Petrochemical plans to halt a 1.8 million-ton line in mid to late February to switch to PE. Overseas, some units in the Middle East and the US are continuously shut down, and it is expected that import volumes in March will decrease by more than 100,000 tons. In the short term, affected by costs and demand, ethylene glycol will fluctuate and adjust. Post-holiday maintenance expectations combined with declining imports may limit the downside space for ethylene glycol. Focus on cost price trends and plant operation changes. (First Capital Futures)