Private Equity Shakeup! Quantitative firms claim the "king," foreign and insurance funds rush in! Hundreds of billions are just the entry ticket

In 2025, the private equity industry stands at another critical watershed. From crossing the “hundred billion” scale to quantitative strategies surpassing subjective strategies for the first time to become the industry’s dominant force; from deep involvement by foreign and insurance capital to the “first echelon” generally surpassing the 50 billion yuan mark…

What’s more noteworthy is that the “Matthew Effect” among private funds exceeding 10 billion yuan has further strengthened, with leading institutions continuously growing larger and stronger, while small and medium managers are accelerating their exit, leading to a clear industry segmentation. Looking ahead to 2026, the once-symbolic label of “hundred billion” for scale and success is being redefined. A more resilient and diverse new competitive landscape is emerging.

Structural Reorganization: Quantitative Funds Achieve Historic Milestone

Throughout the more than ten years of development in the sunshine private equity industry, 2025 is destined to be a year frequently mentioned. This year, a structural transformation of “intergenerational replacement” occurred within the hundred-billion private funds camp, with quantitative private funds surpassing subjective private funds for the first time to become the industry’s leading force.

Looking back, at the end of 2021, the private equity industry entered the “Double Hundred” era of “100 firms with 100 billion yuan.” At that time, subjective long-only strategies still dominated the stage. However, after market baptism from 2022 to 2024, the internal camp experienced brutal淘汰. In August 2024, amid continued market decline, the management scale of private funds shrank significantly, with the number of funds exceeding 10 billion yuan dropping sharply to 80. This adjustment became a deep “stress test” for the private equity industry.

Since “9.24,” with the market environment improving, the overall scale of private funds has stabilized and rebounded. According to CITIC Securities, by the end of 2025, the number of private fund managers managing over 10 billion yuan had risen to 112, approaching the historical high of 117 in Q1 2022, with the number of managed products significantly restored to nearly 19,000.

Data from the Asset Management Association of China shows that as of the end of December 2025, there were 19,231 active private fund managers, managing 138,315 funds with a total scale of 22.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.24 trillion yuan from the end of 2024’s 19.91 trillion yuan. Among them, private equity securities funds managed 7.08 trillion yuan, up 1.87 trillion yuan from the end of 2024’s 5.21 trillion yuan, indicating that the growth in the total private fund scale mainly came from private equity securities funds.

If scale recovery is superficial, then structural change is the core of the evolution of the hundred-billion private fund landscape in 2025. Latest data from PFP (Private Fund Platform) shows that as of January 23, 2026, the number of private funds exceeding 10 billion yuan reached 118, an increase of 5 from the end of 2025. There have been clear internal adjustments: 4 funds exited the hundred-billion echelon, while 9 new or re-entered the camp.

Specifically, among the current 118 private funds exceeding 10 billion, quantitative funds are the most numerous, totaling 55, accounting for 46.61%; subjective strategy funds number 48, accounting for 40.68%; hybrid subjective and quantitative strategies total 12, accounting for 10.17%; and 3 insurance capital private funds have not disclosed their investment models.

Zhu Xu, Assistant General Manager of Guangjin Meihui, stated that over the past year, quantitative private funds have become the main force exceeding 10 billion yuan, driven by the resonance of market environment, investor demand, and technological advantages. First, the market over the past year showed clear structural and rotational characteristics, with active trading. Quantitative strategies can more sustainably capture excess returns, with stronger verifiability of performance. Second, under the background of net value-based wealth management and low interest rates, investors pursue stable excess returns. Quantitative products, especially strategies like enhanced strategies, have high interpretability of returns and clear risk features, precisely matching this core demand. Finally, leading quantitative institutions have formed a positive cycle of “good performance, capital inflow, resource investment, and consolidating advantages,” with barriers in technology, data, and talent continuously strengthening their dominant position.

Li Chunyu, Fund Manager of Rongzhi Investment FOF under PFP Group, also said that the dominance of quantitative private funds is a trend driven by multiple factors, with performance being the most direct support. Data shows that in 2025, all quantitative private funds exceeding 10 billion yuan achieved positive average returns, significantly outperforming subjective strategies during the same period.

“Deep application of technologies like artificial intelligence greatly improves the iteration efficiency and scale capacity of quantitative models. Meanwhile, in a declining risk-free rate environment, investors’ demand for stable and predictable returns has increased, making the discipline and risk control capabilities of quantitative strategies more favored,” Li Chunyu said.

Super-Headed: The 500 Billion Club Expands Significantly

Alongside the rise of quantitative funds, there has been another leap in the scale of top private funds.

The current hundred-billion camp has shown a clear “pyramid” structure. The first echelon has generally surpassed the management scale of 50 billion yuan. Among them, only top quantitative private funds have 10 firms with assets firmly above 50 billion yuan, including MingSun, Jiukun, Yifu, HuandFang Quantitative, Kuande, Century Frontier, Chengqi, Black Wing, and others, demonstrating strong capacity for strategy deployment. Meanwhile, subjective private funds represented by Jinglin Asset, Gao Yi Asset, Tianshui Spring, Ningquan Asset, and foreign private funds like Bridgewater China also remain in this echelon, with the total number of such institutions exceeding 15.

According to Zhu Xu, “the threshold of 10 billion yuan remains unchanged, but its significance has qualitatively transformed.” Today, exceeding 10 billion yuan is merely a “ticket” for top-tier firms. The industry is now in a “big elephant running” scenario, with top institutions reaching the 70-80 billion yuan level. Maintaining a scale of over 10 billion means managers have stronger cyclical resilience and an ecosystem that includes AI technology, multi-strategy approaches, and global allocation—something unthinkable three years ago.

The “ceiling” of the first echelon of private funds continues to rise, with the top 30 firms accounting for the vast majority of excess returns and industry influence.

Li Chunyu believes that the current value of the “hundred billion” title is higher, mainly reflected in increased competition: three years ago, “100 billion” was more a result of market-wide growth and capital inflows. Now, the “hundred billion club” experiences monthly internal adjustments, facing not only competition between quantitative and subjective strategies but also challenges from “national teams” like insurance and foreign capital. Maintaining a scale of over 10 billion yuan is far more difficult than reaching it.

In stark contrast to the prosperity of the top echelon, the bottom is shrinking rapidly. CITIC Securities data shows that micro-managers with assets between 0-5 billion yuan are disappearing at an astonishing rate, with nearly 2,000 firms fewer than their peak. This “top siphon effect” indicates that the private equity industry has entered a stage of refined competition after the stock of existing funds, with capital flowing increasingly toward top institutions with comprehensive research systems, advanced risk control, and strong branding.

Diversification Accelerates: Foreign and Insurance Capital Flood In

One of the most notable changes in the early 2026 hundred-billion list is the strong expansion of foreign and insurance capital.

Data from PFP shows that as of early 2026, the number of foreign private funds exceeding 10 billion yuan has increased to 2, namely Bridgewater China and Tengsheng Investment; the number of insurance private funds exceeding 10 billion yuan has increased to 3. The continuous influx of long-term and overseas institutions is changing the competitive ecology of hundred-billion private funds.

Led by Bridgewater China, foreign institutions are integrating global macro strategies with China’s local markets, not only gaining scale but also becoming important underlying asset allocation tools for domestic institutional investors amid the asset allocation drought.

According to a reporter from Securities Times, last September, Bridgewater China’s new shares were snapped up immediately after listing, requiring bank allocations to get them, making it a “hot commodity” among high-net-worth clients. In Q4 last year, Bridgewater chose to halt new offerings, with its management scale exceeding 50 billion yuan.

The number of insurance capital private funds exceeding 10 billion yuan has increased to 3, marking the official deepening of private equity investment by insurance funds, which have brought long-term, stable capital flows and profoundly changed the ecological characteristics of the private equity industry—from a pursuit of extreme flexibility to a focus on long-term, low-volatility, absolute returns.

Looking ahead, Li Chunyu believes that “hundred billion” is no longer the end goal; the industry’s competitive dimensions will surpass scale thresholds. Building resilient, cross-cycle investment capabilities, multi-strategy systems, and transparent, trustworthy client relationships will become the core competitive barriers for top private funds.

The dramatic change in the private equity landscape is a microcosm of China’s capital market maturing. From chaos to order, from subjective brilliance to quantitative rise, from domestic grassroots to the gathering of foreign and insurance capital, China’s private equity industry is undergoing a metamorphosis.

The arrival of an era dominated by quantitative strategies does not mean the end of subjective strategies but signals a more rational and efficient market forming. In this dynamic game of hundred-billion camps, only those institutions that continuously evolve, respect the market, and adhere to compliance can truly stand at the forefront in 2026 and beyond.

(Source: Securities Times)