Predicting the bottom range of this bear market for $ETH

This cycle, ETH's performance compared to BTC has indeed been weaker, with almost no independent trend. Currently, the price has entered a relatively bottomed-out consolidation zone in advance. ETH has little story to tell right now; instead, it has returned to a stage where you can start slowly accumulating chips.
ETH can now be dollar-cost averaged in, but only up to 30% of the position.
The accumulation method remains pyramid-style orders, with the number of layers depending on your judgment. Here, the focus is on risk boundaries.
We are still in the mid-term of BTC's bear market, and there is still room for a standardized decline in BTC, with a maximum of 50% in extreme cases (though I think the chance of another 50% drop is low). ETH cannot be immune from this.
Assuming reference prices:
BTC currently around 77,000–78,000
ETH currently around 2,300
If BTC undergoes a -50% bear market structure:
BTC target ≈ 38,000–40,000
Of course, this is an extreme scenario. I actually believe it won't fall below 50,000.
Even if ETH only follows BTC without additional valuation cuts, based on historical relative decline of 0.45–0.5 times:
Slightly optimistic: 1,600–1,700
More pessimistic but still reasonable: 1,200–1,400
This range just happens to be the core bottom zone for ETH in the previous bear market.
The specific price range is just for reference.