Bitcoin Promised to Drop to $38 000 and Compared to Benjamin Button

Bitcoin could plummet to $38 000, according to analysts at Stifel. They compared the cryptocurrency to the character from F. Scott Fitzgerald's novel "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button." To support their forecast, analysts created a chart marking the lowest points of all major Bitcoin crashes since 2010. At Stifel, they calculated that: in 2011, the first cryptocurrency lost 93% of its value; in 2015 — 84%; in 2018 — 83%; in 2022 — 76%. If a line is drawn through these lowest market dip points, it will trend upward and indicate $38 000 as a likely minimum for the next decline.

The Stifel experts attempted to explain their theory using an analogy with the character Fitzgerald described, who was born old and then grew younger throughout his life until he died as an infant. Previously, the fixed limit of 21 million coins made the cryptocurrency stronger amid a weakening dollar caused by monetary issuance. Until 2025, there was a clear pattern: Bitcoin grew when the dollar weakened, and the global money supply (M2) increased. The experts called this "aging in reverse," meaning a situation similar to Benjamin Button's life, who was full of energy but in an old body.

However, from 2025, the relationship reversed: now Bitcoin falls alongside the dollar, resembling Benjamin Button, who outwardly looks like a child (— that is, a young currency )— but behaves like an 80-year-old person — that is, like old, familiar fiat money, explained the Stifel experts.

They also pointed to another sign of BTC's "old age" — a close correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 stock index. The index's dynamics directly depend on signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the experts announced. According to them, Nasdaq 100 rises when the regulator maintains a loose monetary policy and falls when it tightens. If financial conditions are not eased, this will negatively impact stock valuations and further pressure the Bitcoin market, the experts believe.

*Alt text: Chart showing the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 index*

The analysts also pointed out another indicator of Bitcoin's "aging" — the close relationship with the stock exchange technological index Nasdaq 100. The dynamics of this index are directly influenced by signals from the Federal Reserve of the United States, the experts stated. They explained that the Nasdaq 100 tends to grow when the Fed adopts a soft monetary policy and declines when it tightens. If financial conditions do not become more accommodative, this could negatively affect stock valuations and add further downward pressure on the Bitcoin market, they warned.

Bitcoin is unlikely to fall by 80% as it did in 2018 and 2022, according to analysts at K33. Their main reasoning is that currently, a significant portion of the market consists of large corporate investors who are not in a hurry to sell their Bitcoin holdings.

*Alt text: Graph illustrating Bitcoin's potential decline and current market stability*