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I’ll have to do a full report on this but It’s been a while since I zoomed out on the true macro structure.
From a structural standpoint, this market looks far more like the late 90s than the 2008 sideways cycle or the Roaring 20s blow-off.
There have only been three true decade+ consolidation periods in the history of the indexes:
• 1910's-1920's
• 1966–1982
• 1996–2013
2008 was the end of a long structural range rather than the asset bubble many would have you believe. Maybe a housing bubble which is largely unproductive but the indexes didn't even make new highs.
Today’s market is nothing like 2008 mortgage crisis.
It looks much more like structure we reached by the 1990s post 70/80s s&L crisis and inflation scare and has many more similarities to 90's in terms of internet technology focus.
We’ve just broken out of a multi-decade channel to the upside — very similar to the breakout that preceded the late-90s melt-up.
And now look beneath the surface:
• Mega caps rotating into laggards, small caps, and emerging markets
• Altcoins shifting structure vs BTC
• Financial conditions easing
That’s not how final phases of an asset bubble behave but rather how it begins.
This isn’t a housing-style leverage bubble or a roaring 20s style melt up. It’s a technology-led productivity boom — most similar to the 1990s — driven by AI and crypto adoption.
Those cycles didn’t roll over quietly. They expanded rapidly towards the peak.
If AI is truly the most disruptive technology of the century as people says, it won't go out with everyone fearful and calling a top and selling stocks at every ai doom
Article posted. It will go out with everyone getting rich off their ai agent or something ridiculous we don’t even see yet.
Our view is we’re not late. and in fact we’re early in the final expansion phase which begins this year and lasts into the end of the decade.