Impinj (PI) expects a target price of $155 amid short-term pressure due to channel correction

On February 6, UBS lowered the target price for Impinj, Inc. (NASDAQ:PI) from $190 to $155 while maintaining a neutral rating. The company noted that the forecast for the first quarter is significantly below consensus expectations, due to prolonged inventory sell-through in the channel and product obsolescence, especially among major clients like UPS. UBS indicated that although estimates have been reduced, more sustainable catalysts may depend on broader adoption in the food vertical and a clearer demand recovery in retail.
The day before, Impinj, Inc. (NASDAQ:PI) reported its Q4 and full fiscal year 2025 results. Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 reached a record $69.6 million compared to $65.9 million in 2024, with a record EBITDA margin of 19.3%, aligning with the long-term financial model. Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $16.4 million, reflecting a margin of 17.7%. The management highlighted a 9% year-over-year increase in end IC shipments in 2025, with the M800 platform becoming the main driver of volume and contributing to a more profitable product mix. For Q1 2026, Impinj forecasts revenue in the range of $71–74 million compared to $74.3 million for the same period last year, implying a decline of about 2% year-over-year on average. The forecast reflects expected significant sequential decline in end IC revenue from $75.2 million in Q4, mainly due to normalization of inventory levels in the supply chain, weak retail demand, slight annual price reductions, and seasonal decline in system revenue. Adjusted EBITDA is projected in the range of $1.2–2.7 million, and adjusted non-GAAP net income is expected to be $2.5–4.0 million, or $0.08–0.13 per diluted share. Despite short-term challenges, record profitability and growth in end device volume demonstrate operating leverage and demand resilience, indicating the potential for significant profit acceleration once inventory pressures ease.

Impinj, Inc. (NASDAQ:PI) — a leading participant in the Internet of Things ecosystem, specializing in RAIN RFID technology that connects physical objects to cloud data systems. Founded in 2000 and based in Seattle (Washington), the company offers an integrated platform including end-device chips, readers, and software solutions that enable real-time identification, tracking, and authentication of items.

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