#深度创作营

A new month, a new week, a new Monday. Although the monthly performance has indeed been lackluster, it doesn't prevent the possibility of a significant rebound this month. After all, there are 31 days in this month and an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. As I mentioned in my previous content, the ongoing conflict has a high likelihood of causing U.S. inflation and inflation expectations to rise again, which could lead to less optimistic economic data from the U.S.. This would probably be bearish for risk markets. It's a kind of pain, but we just need to endure it. Just like this conflict, it started with a sharp drop. Logically, it should continue to decline, right? But why can it rebound again? So, we need to think about this question. I believe that as long as we endure, we will return to the "price discovery" zone.

Do you think it will still fall below the 60,000 level in the future? Yes. But will it fall below 50,000? Probably not. I think the phased bottoming price should be in the range of 【50,000-60,000】, maybe around 58,000 or 53,000. But please note, if in the next few days, it directly breaks through 70,000, then the timing to find a bottom will be pushed back, and that’s not something to discuss this month. In fact, as long as the price breaks through 70,000, whether it stabilizes or not, it’s possible to see it rise to the range of 【72,000-74,000】, or even break above 74,000 to reach above 78,000. At that point, we might need to reassess whether the 60,000 level has become the bottom of this decline.

In the short term, if the price breaks through and stabilizes above 67,000, I will be bullish, but there are some minor obstacles above. Still, I will look towards 68,000 and above. Conversely, if in the next few hours, the price fails to rise and instead falls below 65,000, I will be bearish, but not too deep. For now, I see the range 【64,300-64,900】. Whether it goes lower depends on how the price performs here.

So, what can we do? If the price breaks through 67,000, look for a low buy point, such as around 66,000, etc. If the price chooses to go down, you know what to do—set stop-losses, buy the dip, and short at key support zones 【64,300-64,900】.