Crypto Daily ( 03.03 ): Bitcoin briefly surges past $69,000 as institutional holdings increase amid geopolitical risks

I. Bitcoin Price Dynamics
1. Bitcoin experienced multiple price fluctuations on March 2, 2026, including breaking through 67,000 USDT (0.45% increase), surpassing 68,000 USDT (1.53% increase), and breaking through 69,000 USDT (2.74% increase). It also dipped below 66,000 USDT (0.75% decline in 24 hours or a decrease in the gain to 1.41%).
2. During the US morning trading session on March 2, Bitcoin rebounded from weekend lows to $68,600, with a 24-hour increase of 2.3%. Major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and others also rose in tandem. Among crypto-related stocks, Circle (CRCL) led with a 12% gain.
II. Bitcoin Technical and Market Structure Analysis
1. On March 1, Bitcoin showed a range compression pattern, oscillating between $63,886 and $68,043, in a bear flag or distribution zone. The key resistance zone is near $70,000, while $63,000 is the main support zone.
2. Technical indicators show Bitcoin's price below all major moving averages (EMA and SMA), with a short-term neutral to bearish trend. A break above $70,000 or below $63,000 could trigger increased volatility.
III. Macro and Geopolitical Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market
1. Middle East conflict (Iran attack) triggered risk-off sentiment, with gold rising 2%, oil up 7%, and the US dollar index appreciating 1%. However, the US stock market reacted mildly, with the Nasdaq down only 0.1%. Geopolitical risks may influence market re-pricing of cryptocurrencies. Despite short-term volatility, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in March has weakened, and macro tightening pressures could weigh on crypto assets.
IV. Institutional Dynamics and Market Capital Flows
1. Institutional investors, Strategy, purchased 3,015 Bitcoin worth $204 million last week, bringing total holdings to 720,737 BTC, with an average acquisition cost of approximately $75,985. The current value of held Bitcoin exceeds $47 billion.
2. Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a daily net outflow of $27.5 million, with a cumulative net inflow of $54.78 billion; Ethereum ETFs saw a daily net outflow of $43 million, with a total net inflow of $11.63 billion, indicating ongoing adjustments in institutional crypto allocations.
V. Long-term Bitcoin Price Forecast
Standard Chartered Bank predicts that by 2030, Bitcoin could reach $500,000, reflecting a long-term optimistic outlook for the cryptocurrency market.