Yesterday, Monday, Bitcoin surged sharply. Analysis of the reasons (macro and technical breakdown), personal opinion, for reference only!

Macro aspects (main narrative: geopolitical "buy the news" + liquidity recovery + risk asset rotation)
The key trigger was the escalation of the Middle East US-Iran conflict (the US and Israel's strikes on Iran have entered the third day, with the killing of Iran's top leader, destruction of naval headquarters, etc.)
Over the weekend and before the open, the market preemptively sold off in panic (BTC plummeted to around 63k), oil, gold, and silver prices soared, and risk assets were under pressure overall. But after the actual combat unfolded on Monday, the market assessed that "the worst-case scenario has been priced in":
Iran's retaliation is limited (more talk than actual action).
Trump publicly stated that "it might end in 4-5 weeks, not a long-term quagmire."
The Strait of Hormuz remains tense but not fully closed, with oil prices spiking then retreating.
→ Panic premium quickly unwound → Risk assets (including BTC) rebounded sharply.
US macro data exceeded expectations: On March 2, the ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 (second consecutive month above the 50 expansion/contraction line), and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI also slightly rebounded. This reinforced expectations of a "soft landing + expansion cycle" for the US economy, risk appetite warmed, and funds flowed back from pure safe havens (gold and bonds) into risk assets (tech stocks + crypto).
Bitcoin ETF funds reversed: Recently, the spot BTC ETF, which had been continuously outflowing, showed a clear reversal over the weekend/Monday with significant net inflows. This is seen as a signal of institutional "buying the dip," especially amid macro turbulence, with some funds viewing BTC as a "digital gold + tech asset" hybrid.
The US dollar index rebounded after a phase of pressure: DXY rebounded from last week's lows to around 98.7 (up 0.3-0.4% intraday), but overall remains in a weak channel (down over 6% in the past year). The brief strengthening of the dollar did not suppress risk assets; instead, due to "war uncertainty → Fed easing expectations slightly rising," it indirectly benefited BTC.
Summary of macro: Geopolitical black swan events have been "partially digested," + solid US economic data, + institutional fund replenishment → risk appetite phase recovery.
Technical aspects (pure market mechanics: short squeeze + leverage reset)
Large-scale short squeeze: Near the weekend lows, leverage long-short ratio was extremely unbalanced, with a large number of short positions accumulated in the 65k-68k range. After the price quickly broke through 68,000, it triggered chain liquidations (over $240 million in liquidations across the network in 24 hours, mainly shorts). This was not "new funds frantically buying," but a forced liquidation-driven rally. Leverage reset + long position reversal.
Open interest (OI) in futures contracts increased, but long positions quickly overtook short positions. Funding rates shifted from neutral to positive, indicating market sentiment moved from extreme pessimism to neutral or slightly bullish. CME futures basis also spiked, showing institutional/professional players quickly covering longs.
Key level breakout: After the daily chart formed a "hammer" at a low, it directly absorbed the weekend's bearish candle body, turning the technical picture into short-term strength. The next resistance is at 71,000-74,000 (previous high pressure zone). If it stabilizes, it could open up more space.
This rally is "more about short covering than strong spot demand." If geopolitical tensions worsen again or ETF outflows resume, a secondary dip is likely. Currently, it remains a "recovery rebound" rather than a new bull start.
‍#美伊局勢影響 $BTC