Opinion: This TGE is actually quite controversial. The track itself is fine; prediction markets have already been educated by Polymarket, and regulations are gradually becoming clearer. Launching the token at this time is theoretically riding the wave.

But the problem lies in the points mechanism. Early on, points were used to stimulate trading, with monthly trading volume once reaching $8 billion, which looks impressive. But essentially, many of these were just for point farming, not natural prediction demand.
When the TGE was announced, only 3% of the airdrop was released in the first quarter, far below expectations. The points price dropped directly from $45 to $6. Many participants invested at high costs, only to see their holdings severely shrink.
The project team chose to keep circulation low to maintain the price, which is good for the secondary market but causes significant emotional harm to early users. What really matters next is how much trading volume remains after removing the points incentives and whether users will stay.
In the short term, it's about the structure; in the long term, it's about genuine demand.