The Strait of Hormuz is the only maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean, often referred to as the "World's Oil Valve."

Average daily oil transportation: approximately 20 million barrels, accounting for about 20%-25% of global maritime oil trade; liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade: about 20% globally.
The narrowest point is only 33 kilometers wide. Oil-exporting countries in the Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, almost entirely rely on this passage for crude oil exports. About 90% of Iran's oil exports also pass through this strait.
#原油价格飙升 , Iran states that the strait "is no longer safe." On February 28, 2026, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a ban on any ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, oil tanker traffic has nearly come to a halt, with many ships halting navigation to avoid risks.
Impact on oil prices
Short-term: Brent crude oil has surged over 13%, approaching $84 per barrel. JPMorgan analysis: After a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for 25 days, Middle Eastern oil-producing countries may have to halt production because oil cannot be shipped out. If the blockade continues, oil prices could quickly rise to $100-$130 per barrel.
Impact on monetary policy constraints
Federal Reserve: High oil prices will reduce the likelihood of rate cuts in 2026, making the inflation target (2%) harder to achieve.
European Central Bank: Rising oil prices may force central banks to maintain hawkish stances.
Overall impact: "High oil prices make it more difficult for central banks to cut interest rates, suppressing asset valuations."
Key data:
• About 20% of global LNG supplies will be cut off.
• An increase of $10 per barrel in oil prices could lead to a 10-20 basis point decrease in economic growth over the next 12 months.
• If oil prices stay at $120 per barrel, the US and global economies will suffer a "significant blow."
Historical comparison: The 1970s oil crisis triggered recessions in multiple countries. Analysts note that to create a similar scale of global economic crisis, oil prices would need to reach around $200 per barrel.