#美伊局势影响 Market Observation and Personal Thoughts on the US-Iran Situation

Recently, with the US-Iran tensions escalating, BTC surprisingly surged against the trend, and gold and crude oil also strengthened. I’ve been closely watching the market and want to share my genuine feelings with everyone 👇

1. Under geopolitical conflict, BTC rebounds against the trend. Do you think 70,000 is stable?

I believe that the 70,000 level is not stable in the short term.

- The current rebound is mainly driven by risk-averse sentiment due to geopolitical tensions. Once there are signs of easing in the conflict, sentiment will retreat, and a correction could follow.
- From a technical perspective, BTC is showing a clear concentration of support around 70,000. It needs sustained volume to stabilize and confirm a new trend; otherwise, it’s more like an event-driven pulse.
- My own approach is: I’ve taken a small position, but set strict stop-losses. I don’t bet on a one-sided move, as geopolitical uncertainties are too many.

2. Gold vs. Crude Oil vs. BTC, which is the strongest safe haven right now?

From this wave of market movement, BTC’s resilience and capital recognition are clearly higher:

- Gold: A traditional safe-haven asset, known for stability, but with relatively moderate gains, making it more suitable for long-term large capital allocation.
- Crude Oil: Directly driven by geopolitical conflicts, with strong supply-side logic, but highly volatile and easily affected by OPEC+ policies and macroeconomic expectations.
- BTC: As “digital gold,” it combines safe-haven attributes with growth stock elasticity. During this geopolitical turmoil, capital inflow speed and gains have led, making it more favored by young investors and institutions.
I personally lean towards BTC as a short-term safe-haven allocation, gold for long-term core holdings, and crude oil for short-term trading.

3. If the geopolitical conflict escalates, will it push up inflation expectations and hinder the Federal Reserve’s rate cut path?

If the conflict escalates, it’s highly likely to drive energy prices higher, thereby increasing inflation expectations. This could indeed put pressure on the Fed’s rate cut schedule.

- Once oil prices stay high, core inflation data may rebound again, giving the Fed a reason to delay rate cuts or maintain high interest rates longer.
- This is a double-edged sword for risk assets: on one hand, geopolitical risk aversion supports BTC and gold; on the other hand, high interest rates suppress valuations, creating a tug-of-war.
- Therefore, the next key signals to watch are: first, the evolution of the US-Iran situation; second, statements from Fed officials. These two variables will directly determine the medium-term market direction.

What do you all think about this market? Do you have your own layout ideas? Feel free to share and discuss!