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Baseline Scenario (65%): Volatility to bottom out, first suppress then rise

• Trading Range: $1850–$2050

• Rhythm: Rebound from $1900–$1860 support, stabilize; heating up with the upcoming halving in late month, gradually rising

• Key: Steady above $2050 → open space for $2150–$2300

• Suitable for: Buying low and selling high, avoid chasing the rally

2) Optimistic Scenario (20%): Volume breakout, medium-term rebound

• Trigger Conditions: Federal Reserve signals dovish stance, BTC breaks out strongly, capital flows back into ETH-based assets

• Trend: Break through $2050–$2100, rebound target $2300–$2600

• Signal: Consecutive volume increase on daily chart, stabilize above $2100