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Baseline Scenario (65%): Volatility and bottoming out, first suppress then rise

• Trading Range: $1850–$2050

• Rhythm: Pullback to support at $1900–$1860 to stabilize, repeated shakeouts; heating up in the latter part of the month with halving expectations, gradually rising

• Key: Steady above $2050 → open up space for $2150–$2300

• Suitable: Buy low, sell high; avoid chasing the rally

2) Optimistic Scenario (20%): Volume breakout, medium-term rebound

• Trigger Conditions: Federal Reserve signals dovish stance, BTC breaks out strongly, capital flows back into ETH-related assets

• Trend: Break through $2050–$2100, rebound target $2300–$2600

• Signal: Daily volume increases continuously, stabilize above $2100