#比特币反弹 Since the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin has exhibited a three-phase trend of "high-level pullback - weak oscillation - strong rebound," with the specific trajectory as follows:

1. January high-level pullback phase: Influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts, continuous outflows of U.S. spot ETF funds, and tightening global regulations, Bitcoin steadily declined from above $100,000 in early January, briefly falling below $60,000 in early February to hit a new low for the year, nearly halving its all-time high, with first-quarter returns hitting a 12-year low.
2. February weak oscillation phase: The price entered a wide-range oscillation between $60,000 and $68,000, with intense battles between bulls and bears. Futures market liquidations occurred frequently, with multiple attempts to rise near $69,000 being met with resistance and pulling back, failing to form an effective breakout. Market sentiment remained subdued, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping to 19, indicating "Extreme Fear," and retail investors panicking and selling off.
3. March strong rebound phase: On March 4-5, Bitcoin experienced a breakout rally, consecutively surpassing key resistance levels at $68,000, $70,000, $72,000, and $73,000, breaking through the downtrend channel since February 9. Daily candles showed high volume bullish signals, and bullish sentiment significantly improved. Mainstream cryptocurrencies followed the rally, and crypto-related concept stocks also strengthened, with Cb's single-day increase exceeding 14.5%.

Deep Analysis of the Core Drivers of This Round of Market Movement
The strong rebound of Bitcoin is not accidental; it results from the resonance of multiple factors including on-chain chip structure, technical supply patterns, policy expectations, and long-term narratives, while also acknowledging the presence of significant negative pressures that cannot be ignored.
(1) Core Positive Drivers
1. Continuous Optimization of On-Chain Chip Structure: Whales and long-term holders increased their holdings against the trend. According to Glassnode data, despite intense market volatility in February, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) reduced their sales by 87% compared to previous periods. Currently, only about 31,000 BTC are actively being sold, with strong reluctance among long-term holders to sell, leading to increased lock-in of bottom-position chips. Meanwhile, addresses holding over 100,000 BTC, known as "super whales," have accumulated an additional 14,000 BTC. Major global exchanges have experienced seven consecutive days of net Bitcoin outflows, with 13,500 BTC transferred out of exchanges into cold wallets for long-term storage, continuously shrinking circulating supply and providing a solid chip foundation for price rebounds.
2. Thin Supply in Key Price Zones: Significantly Reduced Upward Resistance: According to joint analysis by CoinDesk and Glassnode, the circulating supply of Bitcoin between $72,000 and $80,000 is extremely thin, with only about 1% of circulating Bitcoin traded within this range, and historical trading time in this zone has been very short. After Trump’s victory in November 2024, Bitcoin’s price quickly jumped over this range, and the decline in late January 2026 only briefly lingered within it, without forming a dense accumulation of trapped positions. This means that once Bitcoin stabilizes above $72,000, the selling pressure during the push toward $80,000 will be significantly less than in other zones, which is a key technical reason for the rapid breakthrough of multiple resistance levels during this rebound.
3. Favorable Policy Catalysts and Marginal Improvement in Regulatory Expectations: Recently, signals of a warming trend in global crypto regulation have emerged: Former U.S. President and 2024 presidential candidate Trump publicly supported crypto regulation bills, explicitly endorsing the development of the U.S. crypto industry, boosting market expectations for regulatory improvements post-U.S. elections; Hong Kong’s stablecoin license has been officially implemented, and the development of compliant markets in Asia continues; Singapore’s Web3 Summit from March 5-7 is expected to bring multiple industry favorable policies and collaborations, further boosting market sentiment.
4. Halving Cycle Long-Tail Effect and Long-Term Capital Deployment: The fourth Bitcoin halving, completed in May 2024, continues to exert a long-tail effect. Historical data shows that 18-24 months after halving is a critical phase for Bitcoin’s upward cycle, corresponding to industry compliance improvements and demand recovery. Coupled with market expectations of the Federal Reserve resuming rate cuts in the second half of 2026, some long-term institutional funds have begun to deploy early, providing long-term narrative support for Bitcoin’s price.
(2) Cautionary Negative Factors
1. Macroeconomic Liquidity Expectations Remain Unfavorable: The Fed’s March rate cut largely fell flat. The market currently assigns an 86.5% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in March. The Fed paused its rate cuts since September 2025, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The high-rate environment persists, with the dollar and U.S. bond yields remaining high, continuing to suppress valuations of high-risk assets like Bitcoin. Market participants are awaiting March’s U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data for clues on monetary policy shifts. Until key data is released, overall funds remain cautious.
2. Continued Tightening of Global Regulations: Despite short-term regulatory optimism, the overall trend of tightening crypto regulation worldwide remains unchanged: The EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation will fully take effect on March 25, imposing strict licensing requirements on crypto service providers across the EU, significantly increasing compliance costs; the U.S. Department of Justice previously seized 127,000 BTC and plans to sell an additional 70,000 BTC confiscated from Silk Road, creating potential selling pressure; domestic regulatory red lines remain clear—Bitcoin does not have legal tender status, and related trading activities are considered illegal financial activities, continuing to constrain market funds.
3. Large Token Unlocks in March Pose Potential Selling Pressure: In March 2026, approximately $5.8-6 billion worth of tokens will unlock across the entire crypto market, involving major tokens like WBT, SUI, ZRO, etc. Post-unlock, some project teams and early investors may sell, diverting overall market liquidity and indirectly affecting Bitcoin’s capital inflow, with short-term selling pressure to watch for.
4. High Leverage Risks in Futures Market Persist: During this rebound, futures market battles remain fierce, with over $570 million in total liquidations in 24 hours, with short positions accounting for over 70%. Forced liquidations of high-leverage positions further amplify price volatility. The current market’s long-short ratio remains at a neutral-high level of 1.64. If prices pull back, high-leverage longs could trigger concentrated liquidations, creating a negative cycle of "decline-liquidation-selling pressure escalation."

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(1) Core Technical Signals
1. Trend Level: Bitcoin’s daily chart has successfully broken out of the downtrend channel since February 9, with 6-hour and 4-hour charts showing clear bullish trends. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages on the daily chart have formed a golden cross, with short-term moving averages turning upward, indicating bulls dominate the market.
2. Key Levels for Reference:
- Upward Resistance: First resistance at $75,000 (core point in options gamma magnet, with over $2.3 billion in negative gamma positions), second resistance at $80,000 (previous dense trading zone and psychological round number);
- Downward Support: First support at $70,000 (round number and key breakout level), second support at $68,000 (daily MA20 and previous consolidation upper boundary), strong support at $65,000 (previous consolidation lower boundary and bullish support line).
3. Indicator Level: The MACD on the daily chart has formed a golden cross, with bearish momentum fully exhausted and bullish momentum continuing to expand; RSI has risen to around 65, still below overbought levels, leaving room for further upside; the put/call volume ratio in options has sharply fallen from 1.89 at the end of February to 0.40, indicating market sentiment shifting from extreme risk aversion to bullish positioning, with increased willingness to bet on upward movement.
(2) Three Market Scenarios Forecast
1. Optimistic Scenario (Probability 35%): Bitcoin can hold above $73,000, with volume continuing to grow, quickly breaking through the $75,000 resistance, rapidly rising within the thin supply zone of $72,000-$80,000, aiming for the $80,000 round number, triggering FOMO and attracting institutional capital back.
2. Neutral Scenario (Probability 50%): Bitcoin oscillates within $70,000-$75,000, digesting previous profit-taking and scattered trapped positions above, waiting for U.S. non-farm payroll, CPI data, and the March Fed rate decision to clarify macro liquidity signals, maintaining a bullish consolidation pattern without significant retracement.
3. Pessimistic Scenario (Probability 15%): Due to weaker-than-expected macro data, sudden regulatory negative news, and large-scale short positions, Bitcoin falls below the $70,000 key support, retesting the $68,000 moving average. If support fails, it could further decline to the previous consolidation zone at $65,000, returning to a weak oscillation pattern.

All content in this article is objective market information and industry analysis and does not constitute any investment advice!