BTC Technical Analysis

Please credit the original source. Origin: Zhiyi Lunbi
Currently, the price is steadily above the EMA21 (approximately 71,200), showing a bullish alignment. However, it should be noted that the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is currently around $76,350, which is the first significant technical resistance above.
Key Signal: If the price cannot quickly break through and stabilize above $75,000 within the next 48 hours, and the 21-day moving average begins to flatten, a short-term pullback may be needed.
Structural Pattern
The price has broken through the previous consolidation range (70,500-71,000), and is now testing the previous top for confirmation. The psychological level of $72,000 was broken yesterday and has now turned into short-term support.
Oscillators (MACD & RSI)
MACD: The 4-hour DIF fast line has crossed above zero, but the red momentum bars have not significantly expanded with the price new highs, indicating a slight bearish divergence. This suggests that the short-term upward momentum is weakening, and caution is needed for a pullback.
RSI: The 14-day RSI is currently around 68, not yet in the overbought zone above 70, indicating room for further upward movement. However, if the price rises again to $75,000 without increasing volume, RSI will enter a serious overbought zone, triggering a technical correction.
Price Level Recommendations
Strategy A: Follow the trend and buy on dips (main strategy, higher win rate)
Since the price has broken through key resistance, our primary strategy is to wait for confirmation of support before going long, rather than chasing the high.
Entry Direction: Long (LONG)
Entry Range: $71,800 - $72,200
Reason: This is the previous high (which has turned into support after breakout), and also a point for quick rebound confirmation caused by short squeeze by some traders. It is also the EMA21 support zone on the 4-hour chart.
Stop Loss: $70,800
Technical Significance: Falling below this level indicates a failed breakout, and the price may return to a consolidation range and test the 70,000 level.
First Take Profit (TP1): $74,500
Second Take Profit (TP2): $76,000
Trailing Stop: After reaching TP1, move the stop loss up to the entry price to ensure no loss.
Strategy B: Short on the left side for a rebound
Entry Direction: Short (SHORT)
Entry Range: $75,800 - $76,400
Reason: This area is not only the resistance of the 50-day moving average ($76,350), but also a key resistance zone on the time‑scape. On-chain data shows sparse resistance above, but technical indicators suggest a pullback is needed.
Stop Loss: $77,200
Technical Significance: If the price stabilizes above $77,200, the bearish logic fails, and the short-term target will challenge $78,000 or higher.
Take Profit Target: $73,000 Pullback to breakout platform