Over the past few weeks, BTC has been following our macro plan, rebounding strongly from the USDT dominance range of 8.80%-8.20%. We also initially bought some spot positions here, aiming for the 72K-80K range, and plan to take more profits at this level. Unfortunately, after locking in some profits near the current levels, we were stopped out to preserve capital, but the idea of a rebound within the broader downtrend remains correct.

That said, the macro thesis remains unchanged. I expect BTC to form a lower high in the 72K-80K range and then move toward lower levels over the next few months. My two main targets are still to catch short-term shorts in our long-term buy zone of $BTC 45K-30K( and to begin our long accumulation process at the start of summer and the end of Q4. Currently, there are no macro bottom signals flashing; we just formed a lower low on the monthly chart, confirming BTC's negative macro structure, along with other indicators that have yet to flash. Rebounds can occur within the broader downtrend, just as pullbacks can happen within a broader uptrend, but it’s important to understand the larger trend and act accordingly.
BTC is currently near the low of April 25th, which may form a 4-hour bearish divergence. This could become the first major rejection point within the 72K-80K range. Ideally, we would see some higher timeframe divergences forming in this zone to strengthen the rejection consensus, but a 4-hour divergence would be a good start. There’s also a possibility of forming another bear flag, but we need to see how the price action develops to confirm. )