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Trading 10 points on RIVER is relatively simple. When the price was above 14 twelve hours ago, a short warning was already issued. Now the price has dropped. I saw this post at noon, and those retail traders who went long are at least losing a few hundred U.S. dollars. I think the logic is quite correct.
When doing right-side trading, respect the objective facts of the data. The simple logic is: at the price of 14, how many retail traders will go short? If most retail traders choose to go long, then how could the funding fee turn negative?
I've always said that a negative funding fee indicates that the market maker is eating long positions at the market price and directly pushing the funding fee to -1. This clearly indicates a problem—it's the market maker building large short positions to absorb retail traders' longs.
At the same time, smart money data is still extremely bearish. Before smart money shows signs of a reversal, the price won't rise, and it needs to wipe out retail traders before it can go up. That's why it has only dropped less than 10 points.
$RIVER