Since Iran war events began and oil prices constantly dominate headlines,

but the real story today lies in the massive gap between what the world was like in the seventies during the October war and what it has become now.

We are not witnessing a repetition of history, but rather witnessing a completely new restructuring of the global economy.

The numbers speak clearly;
in 1973, the world needed an entire barrel of oil to produce 1,000 euros of GDP,
and oil represented about half of global energy demand.

Today, these needs have fallen to a quarter, and oil's share in the energy mix has declined to 29%.

The global economy has become more diversified,
and energy efficiency is no longer an option
but rather a reality that reduces the dominance of "black gold" on growth.

The real risk currently is not about the barrel price itself,
but about the "time" element.

A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is what creates certainty.
Simply put, the world has not witnessed an event like this before
Markets can price scarcity, but they cannot price the unknown.

On the political front, policymakers understand that fuel prices are not just a number at gas stations, but rather a core driver of voter sentiment and "Wall Street" confidence.

Bottom line
Oil alone is not the crisis. The real crisis is the fog surrounding international strategies and the ability to predict the end of the game.

What matters to the investor today is monitoring the "duration" of the disruption, not the "intensity" of the price...

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