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The two main indicators for Bitcoin here are the realized price ($54,380) and the 200WMA ($58,786).
The realized price crossed below the 200WMA back in December, and it has now been three months.
This signals deep market capitulation, which has historically appeared near major bear market bottoms.
In 2022, the crossover first appeared in June, and Bitcoin fell straight through both the realized price and the 200WMA. This time, it used the 200WMA as support.
In bear markets, Bitcoin has more often used the 200WMA as support, as seen in 2015 and 2019, and it only briefly went below it during COVID.
2022 is the only bear market where it spent significant time below the 200WMA.
Bitcoin can go lower but 2026 looks different to 2022.