Uptrend Exhausted, Are Bears Taking Over?

Bitcoin and Ethereum both just experienced a sharp rally followed by a pullback. The short-term correction looks more like a brake during an uptrend rather than a trend reversal. Combined with macro fundamentals, we remain bullish on the market outlook.

**Technical Analysis**

Bitcoin surged from $70,256 all the way to $75,998, a gain of over 8%. It has now pulled back to $74,300 but remains firmly above the 7-day and 25-day moving averages, indicating that bullish momentum remains intact. The pullback appears to be a reaccumulation after profit-taking.

Ethereum rallied from $2,060 to $2,385, up over 15%, and has pulled back to $2,309 while maintaining its position above key moving averages. The strong structure remains unchanged.

**Volume Analysis**

The pullback has not been accompanied by volume expansion or panic selling, suggesting limited selling pressure and that capital is still watching for the next opportunity.

**Macro Perspective**

Recently, the Federal Reserve has signaled rate cut expectations, which should lead to further global liquidity expansion. Crypto, as a risk asset, will directly benefit from increased capital inflows. Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to attract inflows, with institutional capital consistently entering the market and long-term demand expanding. Ethereum's Layer 2 ecosystem and Dencun upgrade expectations are also continuously enhancing its value capture ability.

Risk-off sentiment in traditional markets is intensifying, with some capital flowing from equities and bonds into crypto assets, further supporting valuations of major cryptocurrencies.

Short-term pullbacks are buying opportunities, not panic signals. As long as price doesn't effectively break below key levels—Bitcoin at 72,100 and Ethereum at 2,190—the uptrend will remain intact.

Over longer timeframes, the halving cycle, institutional participation, and technical upgrades have yet to fully play out. Both major coins still have significant upside potential.

**Trading Strategy:**

$BTC Bitcoin: Enter long positions at 73,200-73,700. Target 74,800; if broken, watch 75,800-76,300. Stop loss at 72,180.

$ETH Ethereum: Set up long positions in the 2,225-2,250 range. Target 2,320; if broken, watch 2,390-2,420. Stop loss at 2,190.

Current market conditions represent a pause after a run-up, not a reversal. We maintain our bullish bias on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Stay patient and hold positions or take positions on dips to capitalize on the potential upside ahead.