⚠️ Risk Disclaimer

This forecast is based on public information as of March 17, 2026, and provides short-term trend judgment only (March 18–24). It does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and carry extreme risk.

I. Core Macro and Geopolitical Background (as of March 17)

- Super Central Bank Week: March 18–19 features intensive policy meetings by the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and BOE; market consensus expects the Fed to hold steady in March, with rate cut expectations pushed to June or later.
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- Middle East Situation: U.S.-Iran tensions easing, Strait of Hormuz shipping recovering, IEA releasing strategic reserves, oil prices falling, inflation expectations cooling—positive for risk assets.
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- U.S. Dollar and Liquidity: Dollar Index experiencing slight weakness, concerns about liquidity tightening easing, capital flowing back into risk assets.
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- Crypto Fundamentals: BTC spot ETF continuous net inflows, institutional accumulation, long-term holders reluctant to sell; BTC approaching 76,000, ETH standing above 2,300, bulls in control.

II. Short-Term (3.18–3.24) Cryptocurrency Price Forecast

1. Bitcoin (BTC)

- Core Drivers: Fed policy decision, Middle East situation, ETF fund flows
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- Trend Judgment: Initial consolidation followed by strength, likely to break previous highs
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- Pre-policy meeting (3.18): Consolidation in 73,000–75,500 range, digesting profit-taking.
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- Post-policy meeting (dovish/neutral): Breakout above 76,000, targeting 78,000–80,000 (Polymarket predicts 44% probability of 80K in March).
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- Unexpected hawkish policy: Rapid pullback to 70,000–71,000, but ETF support prevents sharp decline.
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- Key Support: 73,000, 71,500; Key Resistance: 76,000, 78,500.

2. Ethereum (ETH)

- Core Drivers: BTC correlation, Layer 2 ecosystem, fund rotation
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- Trend Judgment: Outperformance vs. BTC with greater elasticity
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- Pre-policy meeting: Consolidation in 2,280–2,380.
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- Post-policy meeting: Breakout above 2,400, targeting 2,450–2,550.
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- Pullback Support: 2,250, 2,180.

3. Major Altcoins (SOL/BNB/XRP, etc.)

- Follow BTC/ETH correlation, outpace BTC slightly, underperform ETH; SOL targeting 95–105, BNB targeting 580–620.

III. Three Critical Risk Points (Determining Trend Inflection)

1. Fed Hawkish Surprise: Inflation forecast upgrade, delayed rate cuts, dollar strength → BTC drops sharply below 70,000.
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2. Middle East Conflict Escalation: Strait of Hormuz blockade, oil spiking over 100 → capital flows to U.S. Treasuries/gold, crypto collective selloff.
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3. Regulatory Negative Shock: U.S. SEC stricter ETF limits, EU increased exchange regulation → short-term panic selling.

IV. Conclusion and Operational Reference (Short-Term)

- Base Case Scenario (70% probability): Fed neutral/dovish, Middle East stabilizes → BTC 73,000–80,000, ETH 2,280–2,550, rally with consolidation.
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- Cautious Scenario (20% probability): Fed slightly hawkish, Middle East minor reversal → BTC 70,000–76,000, ETH 2,150–2,400, range-bound consolidation.
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- Extreme Scenario (10% probability): Conflict escalation + hawkish stance → BTC tests 68,000, ETH tests 2,050, followed by recovery.
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- Operational Strategy: Light positions ahead of policy; post-policy dovish scenario, buy dips with stop-loss below support; hawkish scenario, wait or small short positions.