3.18 Afternoon Market Analysis

**15-Minute Chart Overview:**
After rallying to 74850, price pulled back sharply and is now trading near 74204.9 (Bollinger Band midline).
- Bollinger Band upper band at 74528.1 forms strong short-term resistance
- Lower band at 73880.7 provides support
- Price continues trading below the midline
- Moving averages turning downward; bears dominating short-term momentum with weak rebound strength

**Fed Decision Headwinds:**
Tonight's FOMC meeting is likely to hold rates steady, but the dot plot and Powell's remarks are key risk factors. Market expectations for 2026 rate cuts have cooled significantly. The "higher rates for longer" narrative will tighten liquidity and directly compress risk asset valuations.

**Long Profit Taking:**
After yesterday's rally to 75800, the uptrend collapsed with clear signs of institutional profit-taking. Combined with the Fear & Greed Index in extreme fear territory, bulls lack conviction to chase higher, with selling pressure persisting at elevated levels.

**Geopolitical & Compliance Headwinds:**
Middle East escalation raises stagflation risks and reinforces Fed hawkishness. Simultaneously, tightening global crypto regulations (South Korea's exchange penalties, Hong Kong's limited stablecoin licenses) make it difficult for market risk appetite to recover.

**Trading Recommendations:**

On bounces to 74500–75000 range, fade the move. First target: 73200. On breakdown: 73700#伊朗确认拉里贾尼遇害 $BTC $ETH