Bitcoin has topped and bottomed on almost the same schedule for over a decade. The numbers don't care about your feelings and the bottom isn't in.


Peak to bottom:
2013 → 2015: ~410 days
2017 → 2018: ~363 days
2021 → 2022: ~376 days
Average: ~383 days
Drawdown from ATH:
2011: -93%
2015: -85%
2018: -84%
2022: -77%
Accumulation phase before a new trend:
2015: ~15 months of sideways
2018: ~16 months of sideways
2022: similar
Right now? We're about 5 months past the October peak and only 42% down from ATH.
If history rhymes and it has every single cycle... we're not even halfway through the decline in time, and nowhere near the drawdown levels that have marked real bottoms (I do believe we don't dump as hard as previous cycles due to institutional demand).
The average bear market bottom arrives ~383 days after the peak. That puts a theoretical bottom around late 2026. As I alluded to yesterday, I think we are front running this bottom in terms of time.
The average accumulation phase lasts 12-16 months after that which I do think starts to also decrease due to the volatile dump we saw in February. But this still aligns with a real trend shift wouldn't show until 2027 at the earliest.
Most of you aren't prepared for that timeline. You're checking charts daily hoping for a V-recovery that has never happened in Bitcoin's history for MACRO BEAR MARKET BOTTOMS. The bottom isn't a price. It's a period. And we're nowhere near the end of it.
BTC-2,05%
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