- **No rate hike, no rate cut**: Maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% unchanged.

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- **Vote**: Passed 11:1, with only Waller dissenting (opposed to slowing quantitative tightening).
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- **Core reasons**: Middle East conflict drove up oil prices and inflation rebound (core PCE at ~3%); weakening employment (Feb nonfarm -92K, unemployment rate 4.4%), watching and waiting under stagflation pressure.

**II. Rate Hike Expectations Shift (Key)**

- **March meeting**: Market pricing implies only ~1% probability of a rate hike, virtually impossible.
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- **Next 3 months**: ~25% probability of a rate hike, first time exceeding the probability of a rate cut (20%), but with "holding steady" still dominant.
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- **Year-end path**: Mainstream institutions pushed forward the timing of the first rate cut from June to September or even year-end; the dot plot shows year-end rate cut expectations compressed significantly, with even a risk of zeroing out.

**III. Fed's Stance (Hawkish-leaning)**

- **Statement removed "balance of risks"**, emphasizing rising uncertainty in the economic outlook.
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- **Clarified**: Will not ease recklessly due to short-term supply shocks (such as oil price spikes).
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- **Quantitative tightening (QT) pace slowdown**: Treasury runoff cap reduced from $25B to $5B; MBS unchanged.

**IV. Market Impact (Brief)**

- U.S. dollar and Treasury yields tilted stronger; gold and U.S. stocks under pressure.
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- Global central bank rate cut expectations universally postponed. #BTC #ETH