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What a terrible week. The biggest drawdown in three months.
In the white box $BTC , I took three long positions, and all three were stopped out. The first time in three months I experienced【three consecutive stop-losses】. Because of the consecutive losses, I became more aggressive with leverage and position size, and the stop-loss amounts kept increasing. It wasn’t until today that I finally calmed down.
What am I really trying to prove? Wouldn’t it be better to take two short positions within this range? Isn’t it better to just sit on the sidelines and rest for two days?
Abandon the last potential long tail that may or may not appear, wait for the price to rise to a high level, then aggressively build short positions; or patiently wait for a break below the major support level and then do a rebound short. These are clearly more certain trading opportunities.
Why insist on going long?
I remember at the end of October last year, when $BTC rebounded to 115,000, I started to fully short. I was chatting with a trader friend at the time, who only took long positions. I told him I was now fully bearish and advised him that if he still wanted to go long, he might as well take a break for a month. If the market stabilizes later, he can re-enter; if the trend completely turns bad, he can consider it an early holiday. He agreed with me over the phone at the time.
But a month later, he confided in me that during that month he kept getting stopped out on longs, and eventually he just held on and added to his positions, nearly getting liquidated. In a three-year bull market, he lost almost 90% of his gains, ending up with just a hard-earned penny.
Now I see clearly that the big cycle has entered a bear phase. If I had stuck to staying out and doing nothing during this month, I would have preserved my profits and seen the trend clearly.
I remember September last year, when I was watching the potential for one last crazy tail of the bull market, but I was also full of doubts about many contradictions in the market. My first instinct was: just take a two-month break and stop trading the last leg. But out of greed and attachment to the market, I stayed in. Fortunately, I balanced the risk, reduced my positions by two-thirds in the last two months, and kept stop-losses in place, which allowed me to survive the October 11th crash by a narrow margin.
In the past three months after 2026, my trading has been really smooth, repeatedly taking both long and short positions. I even felt I could profit from any market condition. My【awareness】also gradually relaxed, to the point where I could【detect】that my【“awareness”】was weakening. That state is incredibly difficult to reach…
Many once-incomparable, arrogant traders have fallen quickly just because they got carried away for a moment. In the end, they never lost to technical skills, only to human nature and emotions.
In the face of【human nature, mindset, and emotions】, technical analysis is truly insignificant.
Ultimately, trading is about【trading your own humanity】.
Whenever the market, emotions, or mindset make you feel anxious or increase entropy, always remember the highest realm and wisdom of trading—the【All-Cash Strategy】.
This is just an endless probability game. When this game makes you feel uncomfortable, always remember—you have the right to choose at any time—“I’m not playing anymore.”
——Above are my ramblings, let’s encourage each other.