Trump's latest threat was posted on social media on April 4, 2026 (Eastern Time). This is not merely a "new ultimatum," but a maximum pressure tactic ahead of the expiration of the previously set 10-day "ceasefire window."

This is a geopolitical risk; the next 48 hours (until the morning of April 7) represent a period of extremely high volatility. In this context, cryptocurrencies (Crypto) are more likely to be high-risk assets rather than safe havens.

🚨 Core logic: Decreased risk appetite

Linking to U.S. stocks: Escalation of US-Iran conflict triggers global panic, leading funds to withdraw from high-risk assets (stocks, cryptocurrencies) and flow into gold and the US dollar. The correlation between BTC/ETH and the Nasdaq strengthens, showing a "safe-haven rally, risk decline" pattern.

Oil price transmission: If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked or facilities are attacked, a surge in oil prices will push up global inflation expectations, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain hawkish policies, which is negative for growth assets (including Crypto).

📉 Practical impact on ETH/BTC

Short-term trend (next 48 hours): Slightly bearish with oscillations. Trump’s "final ultimatum" creates uncertainty, and the market tends to reduce positions for safety. If military friction is confirmed, a flash crash could easily occur.

Technical failure risk: The previously observed 4H MACD golden cross and MA60 support are significantly weakened in the face of macro black swan events. Geopolitical tensions can easily break through any technical support levels.

Key timing point: April 6, 20:00 ET (April 7, 08:00 Beijing time) is the deadline set by Trump. Before this, the market will continue to price in "war risk."

🛡 Trading strategy suggestions

Defense first: Before April 7, avoid relying on technical indicators for long positions. If the daily MA60 is broken downward with increased volume, stop-loss decisively.

Watch for reversal signals: If the situation does not escalate after 48 hours (Trump "shouts but does not attack" again), suppressed buying may rebound, forming a "rumor sell, fact buy" pattern.

Position discipline: The current leverage liquidation risk is very high; it is recommended to reduce positions to withstand more than 20% volatility.

Summary in one sentence: News sentiment outweighs technicals. Before the "final ultimatum" is executed, Crypto is a risk asset being sold rather than a safe haven.