U.S. March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI recorded 50.8 (forecast 52.9), hitting a new low since June 2024. Although above the expansion/contraction line, it has been declining for two consecutive months, putting pressure on the U.S. economic recovery.

Why do U.S. economic data impact Bitcoin? Core logic + practical ideas, for beginners to avoid pitfalls.
❶ Core transmission: PMI → Federal Reserve policy → Bitcoin liquidity (the key point)
As a barometer of the U.S. economy, a slowdown in PMI growth boosts expectations of Fed rate cuts, and liquidity easing is one of the core driving forces behind Bitcoin.
Simply put: rate cuts → abundant funds → some funds flow into Bitcoin to boost prices; strong PMI dampens rate cut expectations, putting pressure on Bitcoin. Note that Bitcoin has shifted to being dominated by “actual liquidity,” and mere expectations cannot sustain the trend.
❷ Risk appetite linkage: PMI ≠ direct positive signal, don’t misjudge the logic
Bitcoin is a risk asset. A PMI below expectations may boost risk aversion sentiment, but Bitcoin is not a traditional safe-haven asset. What truly influences it is the “weak economy → rate cut expectations → liquidity” transmission chain. It provides short-term support but does not determine the trend.
Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating. A single data point is insufficient to change the pattern; focus on subsequent transmission effects. #BTC