#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 4.11 Weekly Gold Chart Rebound from Bottom, Next Week Bullish and Bearish Trends Likely to Reopen

This week, international gold prices generally fluctuated higher, forming a typical bottoming rebound pattern. As of the close on April 11, spot gold was at $4,749, down slightly by 0.40% for the week. Early in the week, influenced by easing Middle East tensions and a rebound in risk appetite, gold prices briefly dipped below the $4,600 level; subsequently, due to weaker-than-expected U.S. March CPI data and rising market expectations of long-term Fed rate cuts, combined with ongoing global central bank gold purchases, gold rebounded strongly, reaching near $4,800. As the weekend approached, profit-taking and market caution ahead of U.S.-Iran negotiations caused a slight pullback, and the weekly line ultimately closed with a small positive candle featuring a long upper shadow.

News: The Middle East situation has always been complex, but this round of conflict is particularly unusual: one side just announced a ceasefire, while fighting escalates on the other. Some are negotiating rules at the table, while others are rewriting rules through actions. Amidst repeated tug-of-war, bottom lines are constantly tested, and market sentiment fluctuates sharply.

From the latest developments, U.S.-Iran negotiations are progressing in an orderly manner, and both Lebanon and Israel have initiated separate ceasefire talks. The impact of regional conflicts on the market is gradually weakening, and short-term safe-haven buying in gold is receding. However, it is worth noting that the long-term bullish logic for gold is accelerating its return.

First, signals of a weakening dollar are gradually emerging. Although the de-dollarization process worldwide has temporarily slowed due to regional conflicts, the share of the dollar in global reserves continues to decline, and the long-term credibility of the dollar remains shaken.

Second, despite the low probability of a near-term Fed rate cut, last Friday’s CPI data unexpectedly fell short of expectations, reigniting market expectations for medium- and long-term policy easing. Coupled with slowing U.S. economic growth, the space for real interest rates to decline is gradually opening up, which is positive for gold in the medium term. More importantly, global central banks are continuing to increase their gold purchases. China’s gold reserves at the end of March increased by another 160k ounces compared to the previous month, and many other central banks are continuously adding to their holdings and optimizing reserve structures, providing solid support for gold prices. Under multiple fundamental resonances, gold is expected to break out of short-term volatility and restart a new rebound next week.

Currently, gold is around $4,750 and has not yet broken the consolidation pattern.

Next week’s gold outlook: On the news front, focus on changes in geopolitical tensions. Uncertainty from Trump’s statements may still cause sudden volatility. If U.S.-Iran talks surpass expectations, oil prices fall, and inflation pressures ease, it will be positive for gold; if negotiations break down, oil prices rise, and inflation reaccelerates, it may suppress gold prices. The probability of gold breaking through the current range next week is significantly increased, with room on both sides.

Technically, the technical pattern is clear, maintaining overall consolidation. Trading strategy suggests short-term trading within a small range of 4700–4860, going short at the top and long at the bottom, with a medium-range outlook of 4500–4900. If prices stabilize above 4860, targets can be set at $5,000; if they fall below 4700, support is at 4600. Gold has been sideways for two weeks, and the time window is gradually approaching, so a breakout is highly likely next week. Precautions should be taken accordingly.

Overall, gold remains in a medium-term consolidation phase. Trading does not need to be rigidly fixed on a single direction; flexible responses and steady accumulation are advisable. Once a clear trend emerges and a directional move develops, it will be a key opportunity to seize trend gains and amplify profits.