I've been watching the charts these days, and the situation is quite tense. An analyst from ZX Squared Capital claims that Bitcoin could drop another 30% during 2026, and honestly, the numbers don't lie — we're already nearly halved from the highs of $126,000 reached in October. Right now, it's trading around $71,890.

The interesting thing is that everything revolves around this four-year cycle we keep hearing about. The April 2024 halving cut mining rewards in half, and historically, Bitcoin reaches its peak 16-18 months afterward — which is exactly what happened in October. So the pattern repeats, and now we are in the deepest phase of the bear market.

But here lies the critical point: human psychology makes this cycle almost impossible to break. People buy when everyone is euphoric and sell in panic, always reinforcing the same boom-and-bust cycle. For this reason, Bitcoin remains more of a speculative asset than a safe haven. Institutional adoption is still slow — crypto ETFs and companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets account for only 10% of the total market. If these companies had to sell due to liquidity needs, we could see even stronger pressures. For now, the market continues to move based on these predictable dynamics, and frankly, the bear market might still have some way to go before things change.