Been watching the structure here and honestly it's still looking fragile. We haven't actually confirmed a recovery yet — this is textbook corrective behavior. Price keeps getting rejected at resistance, and the momentum just isn't there to push through convincingly.

Here's what concerns me: if selling pressure picks up, we could easily see a downside move toward the 60k zone. That's not just a random level — breaking below it would expose another liquidity pocket underneath, and that's exactly where markets tend to hunt when positioning gets messy. If that happens, it signals the short-term bottom probably hasn't formed yet.

I'm also monitoring a longer-term scenario that could play out through October. In that case, we might be looking at a deeper corrective phase that extends down toward 40k. Again, not a prediction, just a structural reference point where significant liquidity pools could sit. That's the kind of level where you'd expect the market to potentially stabilize and build a more sustainable base.

What's interesting from a cycle perspective is how different this peak has been. Historically, major tops came with that euphoric late-stage mania — everyone chasing momentum with reckless capital flows. This time? Way more muted. That absence of extreme participation actually makes the downside risk more acute. When you don't get that classic euphoria phase, the market can be vulnerable to a sharper reset than people anticipate.

Liquidity conditions are adding fuel to that concern too. If defensive positioning grows and those lower levels start getting hit, volatility could expand pretty dramatically. The downside could run deeper than most are comfortable with before we find a proper bottom.

Right now it still feels like a risk repricing phase. Until we see sustained structural strength and real supply absorption at these levels, I'm staying alert to the possibility that this correction has more room to run. Keep an eye on that 60k downside support — it's the key level to watch.

BTC currently at 74.11K, down 0.85% on the day. Trade it on Gate 👇