Just caught something interesting on the charts this week. Bitcoin's hitting that extreme risk zone again, and it's reminding me of what we saw back in 2023 before that massive 130% rally kicked off.

Swissblock's data shows BTC has now spent 25 consecutive days in the extreme high risk territory - the longest stretch ever recorded. That's longer than the 23-day peak from 2023. Historically, when price hangs out here this long, it typically signals either a major drawdown or a bottom forming.

Michael van de Poppe flagged something worth paying attention to - the BTC supply profit/loss chart is showing price interaction at levels that previously marked the bottom phases. Back in 2023, when sentiment shifted from extreme risk to lower risk, that's exactly when the bullish expansion started.

But here's where it gets tricky. The trader positioning data doesn't fully align with an uptrend setup yet. Apparent 30-day demand keeps flipping between positive and negative territory. Selling pressure has eased, sure, but genuine sustained buying hasn't really dominated either.

Looking at the macro picture, these deep drawdowns historically take time to resolve. Excluding that COVID-fueled 2020 spike, recoveries from 50% drops usually stretch out over extended periods. The ETF flow data reinforces this cautious tone too - gold ETF inflows have actually outpaced spot Bitcoin ETF flows on a 90-day basis since August. Bitcoin funds themselves are sitting at negative flows averaging around -2.06 billion on a rolling basis.

Inflation trends add another layer. PCE is hovering near 2.9% year-on-year, with core at 3.0% and core services above 3.4%. The Fed targets this metric, and we're not seeing that clear downward momentum that would signal easing expectations. Without that, liquidity expansion looks pretty limited.

Willy Woo made a solid point about price levels - any relief rally toward 70K to 80K is likely to face another wave of selling pressure because the broader regime remains heavily bearish with both spot and futures liquidity deteriorating. Support levels to watch: 45K aligns with the prior bear market, then 30K and 16K mark historical support tied to longer-term trend preservation.

So yeah, the bottom signal is flashing again, but the follow-through isn't quite there yet. The environment's different from two years ago with ETF flows, macro conditions, and liquidity dynamics all playing out differently. Definitely something to keep monitoring closely.