Has the Bitcoin Bear Market Ended? Two Analyses, Two Very Different Answers

Bitcoin is trading at $74,025. Half of the market sees a buying opportunity. The other half considers this a temporary pause on the way to the $30,000 mark.
Both sides have real data to support their claims.
Bearish Argument: The Market Bottom Has Not Arrived Yet
This week, CryptoQuant released an analysis showing that Bitcoin’s Z-score MVRV index has never fallen below zero. Historically, every market bottom in Bitcoin’s bear phase has required this index to drop below zero. Currently, it is at 0.5.
On April 12, analyst Benjamin Cowen provided a realistic bearish market framework, indicating a 70% correction from the October peak of $126,000—implying a potential bottom around $37,000–$38,000. CryptoQuant’s target: $55,000–$60,000 by December 2026, followed by a two-year accumulation phase before the next halving cycle.
Their reasoning is straightforward. The bear market has not yet fulfilled its mission.
Bullish Argument: Debt Calculations Change Everything
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe today announced a different framework.
His sigma analysis of each Bitcoin cycle shows that both bull and bear markets are weakening symmetrically. The 2024/2025 bull market peaks at only +1.5 sigma. The bear market has hit -1.5 sigma—an inverse level historically marking the end of a correction.
“The sigma debt has been paid off in the recent correction,” he writes. He argues that the $30,000 thesis applies the wrong historical framework to a cycle that has structurally changed.
Twelve months after reaching this sigma level, Bitcoin typically gains an average of 100–140%.
James Lavish, co-manager of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and a veteran with 30 years on Wall Street, presented a completely different argument on Milk Road.
His reasoning has nothing to do with charts. The U.S. is carrying a $39 trillion debt and is projected to reach $100 trillion by the mid-2030s. There are four ways to manage this debt—cut spending, raise taxes, default, or print money.
“They have no choice but to flood the system with money,” Lavish says.
The more money poured into the system, the higher asset prices go. This is always true. He predicts Bitcoin will reach nearly $125,000 by the end of this year and $150,000 next year.
How Is the Market Currently Evolving?
Bitcoin is now at $74,025, down 0.25% in 24 hours. The fear and greed index for altcoins has been below 10 longer than any period in history.
Two analysis frameworks. Two completely different conclusions. Both sides’ data are real—making the next move more important than ever.