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Just noticed something interesting about Microsoft that might be worth paying attention to right now.
The stock has gotten absolutely hammered lately—down over 20% from its highs, which is pretty brutal for a mega-cap tech company. Everyone's freaking out about OpenAI, which makes sense when you dig into it. Microsoft has a 27% stake in the company and they're basically betting heavily on it. Here's the thing though: OpenAI is burning cash at an insane rate and facing real competition from players like Anthropic and Google. If OpenAI stumbles, it could mess with Microsoft's cloud business since OpenAI apparently accounts for like 45% of Azure's order backlog. That's a lot of eggs in one basket.
But here's what most people are missing. Microsoft just posted a solid quarter. Their cloud business grew 26% year-over-year to hit $51.5 billion. Their commercial backlog jumped 110% to $625 billion. That's not the sign of a company falling apart—that's actually pretty impressive growth for something this size.
The valuation is also interesting. At 25x earnings, it's the cheapest Microsoft has been since late 2022. Analysts are projecting 14-15% annual earnings growth over the next few years. If they're even close to right, this looks like one of the best stocks to buy now at these levels.
Yeah, OpenAI is a risk to watch. They're raising $100 billion and rolling out new enterprise products. But it's way too early to panic. The real story here is that everyone's so focused on the OpenAI drama that they're overlooking Microsoft's actual fundamentals and all the entrenched products and services they have. Once sentiment shifts on OpenAI, this could bounce back hard. Probably makes sense to load up before that happens.