Coffee just had a solid day on Monday - arabica up 1.37% and robusta jumping 4.08% to hit 2-week highs. Not a huge surprise when you look at what's happening with shipping right now. The situation in Iran has basically shut down traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which means freight costs, insurance, and fuel are all spiking. That's going to hit importers and roasters hard, so it's supporting prices across the board.

But here's where it gets interesting - the gains in arabica are getting capped because Brazil just got a ton of rain. Minas Gerais, their biggest arabica region, picked up 78mm last week, which is like 131% of normal. That's actually good news for their crop outlook, and it comes right after Conab projected Brazil's 2026 production climbing 17.2% to a record 66.2 million bags.

The bigger picture though? Coffee prices have been getting hammered over the past five weeks. Arabica hit a 15-month low and robusta dropped to a 6.75-month low as everyone started pricing in this massive global supply surge. Vietnam, the world's top robusta producer, is exporting like crazy - January shipments up 38.3% year-over-year. Meanwhile, Barchart and other market analysts are tracking ICE inventories, which have actually recovered to multi-month highs after hitting lows back in November and December.

So you've got this push-pull situation. Shipping disruptions and lower supplies from Colombia are supporting prices, but record production forecasts from Brazil and Vietnam, plus improving inventories, are pushing back. The Barchart coffee data suggests we might see more volatility as these competing forces play out.