Recently, I saw someone make a chart showing the supply of stablecoins, ETF net inflows, and off-exchange capital inflows and outflows, then immediately draw conclusions... I understand, the chart looks tempting, but correlation does not really equal causation. More stablecoins might just mean changing parking spots, ETF inflows could be hedging trades moving bricks, and off-exchange money is coming and going, there’s no such straight line.

Especially now, with extreme fee rates, the group is arguing loudly: is it a reversal or just more bubble squeezing? Honestly, I don’t know either, so I just treat it as a “patch” for my brain: first check if the settlement volume has really increased, or if on-chain transfers are more active, then decide whether to add a little position. Small fixes and tweaks, don’t rush to reinstall the system out of excitement.