4.20 Silver Analysis

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, U.S. March CPI dropped to 3.2%, below market expectations, and rate cut expectations continue to heat up, with a probability of over 78% in September. The U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields turned downward in April, significantly reducing silver's holding costs. Silver's elasticity far exceeds gold, and after rate cuts are implemented, it often accelerates upward.

Tensions in the Middle East are high, safe-haven funds are flowing in, the U.S. military has extended the aircraft carrier deployment cycle, and the confrontation in the Middle East remains unresolved, with safe-haven capital continuing to flow in. Debt risks are rising, and silver has become a safe haven for funds. Currently, the gold-to-silver ratio is about 61:1, with a historical average of 65-80. Silver's valuation is low, with ample room for a rebound.

Technically, the outlook is strong, building momentum for an increase. After a volume breakout and stabilization above $80 in April, there was a slight pullback, with an overall bullish arrangement. The pullback is a consolidation phase within the uptrend, with volume increasing on a breakout and decreasing on a retracement, forming a typical "building momentum for a rise" pattern.

Regarding silver trading strategies, consider accumulating long positions in batches at 76–78, targeting around 83–86–90.