My biggest feeling from recent market observation is: interest rates are unruly, when risk appetite shrinks, those "smart money" on the chain move first, not necessarily crashing the market immediately, but gradually shifting positions from small caps and long-tail assets back to mainstream, and stablecoins will also increase. To put it simply, it's not about what narrative you shout, but whether the funds are willing to take a bit more risk.

How would I adjust? First, monitor the net inflow/outflow of a few large addresses, and when I see the reflow slowing down, I turn off leverage, tighten up spot positions, and keep some powder dry until the market sentiment stabilizes.

Does a rate cut necessarily mean a bull market?
Not necessarily, it depends on whether everyone dares to add positions.

The chain gaming wave is even more typical—inflation plus studio siphoning, when the coin price softens, it spirals downward, and when macro tightens, no one wants to catch the falling knife... Anyway, I now prefer to earn a little less rather than endure a drawdown in the "recovery expectation." If I’m wrong, I’ll change; don’t take my words out of context.