Brother Tong BTC Public Thinking

BTC directly surged from 77,900 to 79,455, gaining nearly 1,500 points, following a standard relay-style strong bullish trend.
After the surge, it did not continue to force higher but consolidated above 79,000, currently at 79,100, which is a typical high pullback and rest phase, with a clear and understandable rhythm.
Structural qualitative: Bullish trend intact + short-term indicators overbought + strong resistance overhead, overall still in the upward relay stage, trend structure not broken, very low probability of trap shorts, even minor bullish inducements cannot reverse, no need for excessive panic.
Bullish Core Logic
Solid starting point, institutions actively supporting: 77,900 is a strong support confirmed by repeated tests the previous day, with volume-driven rise from this level, not retail sneak attack, but genuine institutional buying entering, bottom stable, bullish foundation solid.
Daily chart upward channel intact, moving averages in bullish alignment: Price always firmly above short-term moving averages, no breakdown, no downward trend, no continuous dips, as long as key support holds, the trend remains bullish.
ETF continues net inflow, large funds have not exited: Bitcoin spot ETF still maintains stable net inflow, institutions continue accumulating at high levels, no signs of large funds retreating, making a direct market crash unlikely.
Federal Reserve leadership change expectations, medium-term continued positive: The market has already priced in Powell’s resignation in May and the new chair’s easing expectations, which is a medium-term strong support for BTC, with a very low probability of deep plunge.
Surge without pullback itself is a strong signal: Although 79,455 has not achieved effective breakout, it also did not quickly fall back below 78,000, sideways but not falling trend indicates dense buy orders below and extremely limited selling pressure.
Bearish risks and short-term suppression (not blindly chasing longs)
Rapid surge in early morning, 4H level clearly overbought: Nearly 1,500 points rise in one go, indicators directly hit overbought zone, without any retracement correction, chasing longs now is risky, easily leading to high-level dips, small inducements, and washout losses, not worth it.
FOMC on April 30 approaching, cautious funds: This is Powell’s last press conference as Fed Chair, market funds are generally cautious, unlikely to push recklessly, more likely to oscillate at high levels, waiting for news to clarify direction.
Core Summary
Main direction firmly bullish, current price 79,100 not chasing high, patiently wait for pullback before adding longs; only short-term quick entries and exits, never hold against the trend or stubbornly hold positions, strictly follow trend logic.
Practical Trading Strategies
Key Price Levels
Resistance levels: first resistance 79,400–79,500
Strong resistance 79,800–80,000 (integer levels + previous heavy pressure zone, very strong resistance)
Support levels: first support 78,500–78,300 (preferably add longs on pullback, can enter after stabilization)
Strong support 77,900–77,800 (morning surge point, trend weak if broken)
Entry Operations
Long (main, priority strategy):
Pullback to 78,500–78,300 zone, stabilize then add in batches;
Stop loss below 77,800
Targets sequentially at 79,400 → 79,800 → above 80,000, take profits in stages, avoid greed.
Short (secondary, short-term quick trades):
Light position short in 79,100–79,500 zone;
Stop loss at 80,100
Target 78,500–78,000, exit immediately upon reaching target, avoid stubborn holding.