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BTC Ethereum next market analysis, market information summary and impact
There are three key factors that make us cautious about BTC.
Firstly, the hawkish policy inclination of the Federal Reserve is likely to lead institutional buyers to significantly reduce the amount of BTC ETF purchases.
Secondly, global liquidity is declining, especially the liquidity denominated in US dollars, which suggests that BTC may enter a consolidation period, as the weakness of foreign currencies will bring more pressure to it.
Third, the situation of technical indicators has also heightened our concerns: the weekly reversal indicator has been in overbought territory, the appearance of monthly shooting star patterns (which is usually a signal of potential market top), further highlighting the risk of a recent BTC pullback. However, sometimes we need to be even more cautious, and the current situation reflects this trend.
After the highly optimistic outlook at the end of September, it is now important to focus on and manage the downside risk of BTC. From a strategic perspective, the upcoming Consumer Price Index to be released next week may potentially drive a slight increase in BTC before Trump takes office. However, BTC may still face some pressure before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The monthly closing price will be a key factor to pay attention to.
Market information affecting the BTC market
On Friday evening, the US stock market and US government bonds were sold off, and the Federal Reserve did not fail to rescue the market. One hour after the non-farm data was released, the 'Fed market rescue expert' and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans appeared urgently on CNBC.
Goolsbee said in an interview that this is a strong report, which makes me more confident that the job market is stabilizing at full employment levels. As long as the inflation data remains stable, there will still be rate cuts this year.
The market is in a panic of 'good news is bad news', and this sentence can definitely be rated as 'the most frightening sentence for the market' this week.
In the end, all three major stock indexes in the United States closed with a drop of more than 1.5%.
So, all the rises this weekend are just a trap for long positions!
The trend of Dabing may usher in a turning point:
The pancake may have retraced to a key node. The 90,000-92,000 range is a strong support level for the previous five declines, and there is a clear market consensus with a large amount of bottom-fishing funds entering, indicating the possibility of a strong rebound.
Rebound expectations:
The big cake fell from a high of 100,000, referring to the past trend, there is a chance to rise to around 98,000.
Key support level:
90000 is an important support level for Bitcoin, breaking below it may trigger a waterfall-like plunge, but the probability of directly breaking through in the short term is small, with a high probability of rebounding first. However, if subsequent U.S. data is fully utilized, the market will face a severe test, but the Fed may intervene.
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