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#FedRateCutPrediction
預測:根據CME FedWatch,12月9-10日FOMC有87%機率降息25個基點,資金利率將降至3.50-3.75%。沒錯,市場將反彈,標普500在降息開始後12個月平均上漲11%(BMO分析);BTC/ETH因流動性湧入上漲20-30%,如2024年降息時所見。
策略:ETH跌破$3,050(目前支撐)時分批佈局,公告後3天內用20%倉位分批買入,目標$3,400,受益於ETF資金流入與DeFi TVL提升。用10%倉位配置於穩定幣收益(目前約4.5%)對沖波動。風險:若鮑威爾偏鷹,恐快速回調5%,因此$2,950設緊密止損。看好流動性利多大於通膨疑慮 📈🚀