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中銀期貨:合成橡膠短期受開工下調供應下降支撐
基本面來看,天膠國內產區停割,海外泰國北部逐漸減產,泰國南部則處於2025~2026年度割膠季旺產期,原料價格中性偏強;截至2月1日,國內貿易環節結束短暫一周的去庫後繼續累庫(根據隆眾資訊,青島地區天膠保稅和一般貿易合計庫存量59.17萬噸,環比上期增加0.72萬噸,增幅1.23%。保稅區庫存9.76萬噸,增幅3.34%;一般貿易庫存49.41萬噸,增幅0.82%)。 順丁橡膠行業加工利潤轉負後,近兩周開工下調;而原料端因工藝盈利改善預計將迎來國產量抬升空間,產業利潤或面臨調整。BR短期受開工下調供應下降支撐,中期關注原料端變化。觀點供參考。(中銀期貨)