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分析师:比特币月线RSI逼近牛熊分界线,若跌破55或面临更深层次下跌风险
12 月 25 日,CryptoQuant 分析师 Axel Adler Jr 发文表示,「比特币过去 3 个月下跌 20%,且年度收益转为负值,市场正经历大幅回调。关键在于月线 RSI 的走势:当前为 56.5,仅比 4 年均值 58.7 低约 2 个点,而这一水平在历史上往往充当牛熊阶段的分界线。未来 1–2 个月(即 2026 年第一季度)将成为关键观察窗口:如果 RSI 能够守住 55–58 区间上沿,保留了反弹的可能性;若持续跌破 55,则会增加更深层次下跌的风险。」