Recent irrational market fluctuations have once again validated the analytical logic of "macro liquidity takes precedence over technical analysis." Phase-by-phase review confirms the strategy worked. Thank you for your trust. The market always rewards patience and discipline $BTC ‌$ETH

Coinbulletin News: According to Arkham monitoring data, Ethereum OG "thomasg.eth" spent approximately 3 million dollars to increase holdings by around 1401 ETH about 15 hours ago. The account has accumulated purchases of approximately 19.5 million dollars worth of ETH this week. Coinbulletin News: thomasg.eth once held ETH, WBTC, and DAI worth as high as 538 million dollars at the market peak in 2021.

# Crypto Market This Week: Calm on the Surface, Undercurrents Below This week's crypto market appears placid on the surface, but undercurrents are churning beneath. While Bitcoin has barely held the 70,000 USD mark, two major macro "punches" have landed: on one side, Middle East geopolitical conflict has escalated sharply, pushing up oil prices and risk-off sentiment; on the other, the Federal Reserve has released hawkish signals beyond expectations, pushing rate-cut expectations back to 2027. These two forces are pulling hard against each other, setting the stage for potential market reversals next week. ## I. Major Financial Events This Week and Impact Analysis ### 1. Federal Reserve's "Hawkish Pause," Rate-Cut Expectations Dealt a Blow In the early morning hours of March 19 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced it would maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% unchanged, marking the second consecutive pause. The real shock came from the dot plot and Powell's remarks: **Rate-cut expectations delayed:** The dot plot showed officials maintaining the forecast of just one rate cut in 2026 and compressing 2027 rate-cut expectations to just one as well, meaning the high-rate environment will persist much longer. **Powell's "hawkish" stance:** Powell explicitly stated, "We will not consider rate cuts until we see progress on inflation," and even revealed that the committee has begun internal discussions about "whether further rate hikes might be possible." **Inflation expectations raised:** The Fed raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.7%, acknowledging that tariffs and energy prices are transmitting into core inflation. **Impact analysis:** For risk assets like Bitcoin, the "monetary tap" has been turned tighter. Higher rates mean elevated funding costs, directly suppressing leveraged speculation. The market's previous expectation of a "policy floor" has weakened—this is the core suppressive factor preventing meaningful breakthroughs in the crypto market this week. ### 2. Middle East Geopolitical Conflict Escalates, Energy Inflation Shockwave Arrives This week, Middle East tensions deteriorated sharply. U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran have escalated, with multiple Gulf nations' energy facilities affected, and Iran warned that "oil facilities related to the U.S. will face fierce artillery fire." Consequently, international oil prices surged dramatically, with Brent crude futures gaining over 6% at one point. **Impact analysis:** This has created a macro "stagflation" trading logic—rising oil prices push up inflation, forcing the Fed to maintain tightening (or even hike), while geopolitical conflict dampens economic prospects. Though Bitcoin is often viewed as "digital gold," under this combination of "high inflation + high rates," its safe-haven properties haven't materialized; instead, it's under pressure due to risk-asset correlations. However, conflict-driven declines in traditional financial markets (U.S. stocks) have prompted some capital reallocation to alternative assets like Bitcoin, creating some offsetting buying pressure. ### 3. "Lagged Effects" of Economic Data Though this week saw no nonfarm payroll update, prior data showing February nonfarm employment falling 92,000 (far below expectations) and unemployment rising to 4.4% already revealed labor market softness. This "bad news" would normally support rate-cut expectations, but with the Fed's focus entirely on inflation, weak economic signals actually intensify concerns about a "hard landing," diminishing risk appetite. ## II. Technical Analysis and Expected Direction for Next Week ### 1. Bitcoin (BTC): Oscillating Near 70K Mark, Directional Choice Approaching **Current status:** Bitcoin has demonstrated strong resilience this week, maintaining levels above 70,000 USD despite the dual impact of Fed hawkish rhetoric and geopolitical conflict, with the latest price around 70,563 USD. The weekly candle shows a doji, indicating temporary equilibrium between bulls and bears at current levels. **Technical characteristics:** On the daily chart, price is glued to the 70,000 USD round number, with the 69,500-69,700 USD zone below forming effective support tested multiple times. However, resistance from the prior high around 72,000 USD is evident, and volume hasn't expanded meaningfully, showing a typical consolidation pattern. The MACD indicator is adhesive above the zero line, with momentum bars near zero, suggesting the market is in a "power accumulation" phase. **Next week outlook:** Bitcoin is expected to continue its oscillation and accumulation pattern, with the core volatility range at 69,000-72,000 USD. Without actual improvements in macro liquidity, directly breaking above the previous high faces headwinds. If oil prices continue soaring and cause further U.S. stock declines, watch for Bitcoin retesting the 68,000 USD support level; conversely, if it holds above 71,500 USD, it may challenge the prior high. Currently, the probability of downside breakouts testing buying strength appears slightly higher. ### 2. Ethereum (ETH): Relatively Weak, Facing Critical Pair-Trade Test **Current status:** Ethereum has significantly underperformed Bitcoin, with prices this week dipping slightly to around 2,145 USD, showing a "selling more than it buys rallies" characteristic. **Technical characteristics:** Focus on the ETH/BTC ratio. This ratio currently hovers near 0.029, a zone analysts have confirmed as a historical "bottom area." Looking back at the 2019-2021 cycle, when this ratio touched similar bottoms, it subsequently launched rallies exceeding 300%. However, the current issue is insufficient buying momentum: Ethereum spot ETF has seen net outflows for three consecutive days, and altcoin trading volumes have plummeted significantly, preventing the ratio from breaking the critical 0.03 psychological level. **Next week outlook:** Ethereum is currently in a weak bottoming phase. If ETH/BTC cannot reclaim 0.03 in the short term, capital will continue concentrating in Bitcoin, and the ETH/BTC ratio may further test the 0.0285 support. Correspondingly, if ETH breaches the 2,100 USD round number, it could open space down to 2,000 USD. Though long-term bullish logic (such as Fusaka upgrades, institutional adoption) remains intact, technically in the short term, Ethereum needs one volume-expansion bullish candle to confirm a bottoming reversal. ## Summary The macro "tightness" and geopolitical "chaos" are the current market keynotes. Bitcoin has maintained key psychological levels on its "digital gold" narrative, while Ethereum faces dual pressure from pair-trade weakness and capital outflows. Next week's market theme will likely remain "oscillation," awaiting the next macro catalyst. **What do you think?** In this complex environment of coexisting "high rates" and "war premium," will Bitcoin break upward first and establish independent momentum, or will it be dragged down by Ethereum's weakness for a deep wash-out shakedown? We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments.