Staying up late to review the market was exhausting. After organizing the core content of the Fed meeting this morning, here are the key conclusions:

1. If the allegations against Powell are not resolved, he will absolutely not voluntarily withdraw from the committee. His stance is extremely hardline and very clearly defined.

2. Current interest rates are in a neutral-to-slightly-restrictive range. There is no consideration of rate hikes at this stage, and there is currently no data supporting the Fed providing clear policy guidance or signal hints.

3. The Middle East situation still carries high uncertainty. While it is a phase-specific event, whether subsequent impacts can be ignored still requires observation, with statements being relatively vague.

Overall, this meeting aligned with market expectations. General uncertainty remains elevated, and the Fed itself has not formed clear judgments. The dot plot shows no significant changes from December, and policy direction remains subject to future observation. The overall tone is neutral rather than hawkish. Combined with the earlier PPI data beat, this further weakens market expectations for rate cuts.

As for the weakness in US equities during the speaking phase, the core issue is that macro uncertainty impacted market sentiment, rather than the meeting remarks directly causing it. The probability of BTC short-term reversal and rally is extremely low. I maintain my previous view—now is still not the time to go long. Thursday and Friday will likely see continued downward movement. Wait patiently for the window of accelerating liquidity release, then position to accumulate chips and enter long positions. #美联储利率决议