Analysis: After the largest options expiration in history tomorrow, BTC volatility may increase. If BTC drops to $80,000-$82,000, a potential rebound opportunity may arise.

On December 25th, data analyst Murphy stated that approximately $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire tomorrow. This is the largest options expiration in Bitcoin history. When market makers unwind their hedging positions, the support and resistance levels formed by the options structure will temporarily become invalid, potentially amplifying BTC’s volatility in the short term until all participants re-establish their positions and the market forms a new capital structure. If during this period BTC retraces near the previous bottom (around $80,000-$82,000), it could present a short-term rebound opportunity. The volatility caused by the vacuum in the capital structure does not necessarily signal the start of a new round of sharp decline. Moreover, on a smaller scale, a “bullish divergence” signal has appeared in the “price and capital inflow gradient.” The “price and capital inflow gradient” measures the relative momentum change between BTC’s price momentum and actual capital inflows. When the rate of capital outflow changes less than the rate of BTC price decline, it can be interpreted as a correction to the downward trend, indicating a rebound demand. After four “bullish divergence” signals during 2024-2025 and 2021-2022, BTC experienced rebounds of varying degrees or even trend reversals. However, considering the overall market sentiment is still in a correction phase leaning bearish, the probability of the latter scenario remains higher.