📍Does the world really lack oil when Hormuz is blocked?

📌 If the Strait of Hormuz stops operating, the oil supply of ~20 million barrels/day disappears, equivalent to 20% of the global oil supply.
📌 Countries begin looking for replacement sources:
- Surplus production: +3 million/day
- Iran still exports: +2 million/day
- Saudi East-West supply: +5 million/day (ceiling ~7 million)
- UAE ADCOP: +0.8 million/day (ceiling ~1.8 million)
- Iraq Kirkuk–Ceyhan: +0.3 million/day
-> Up to a maximum of 10.5 million barrels/day can be made up. Still a shortfall: ~6.4 million barrels/day. This is even without counting any increase in production from OPEC+ if it is proposed.
📌 Outside the Middle East:
- Easing sanctions on Russia (The US turns a blind eye to Russia and Iran selling more oil into the market): +1 million barrels/day
- Global demand falls due to higher prices: +2.5 million/day
- Some oil is diverted through Hormuz: +0.5 million/day
-> This addresses additional demand of ~4 million barrels/day.
📌 Clearly, the actual shortfall relative to global energy demand is only: ~2.5 million barrels/day (only ~2% of pre-crisis demand). Therefore, oil prices are pushed up more by expectations than by an actual supply shortage.